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2024-12-13 13:34:47
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Before the Bank of Japan's policy meeting, it released chaotic signals. Japanese traders were confused about when to raise interest rates. After the Bank of Japan officials' remarks and media reports sent different signals, traders have been confused about when the central bank might raise interest rates in the past week. This kind of confusion led to sharp fluctuations in the market's interest rate hike bets. The overnight index swap pricing showed that the probability of raising interest rates in December was 22%, which was significantly lower than 60% at the beginning of last week. This week, the yen fell from 150 last Friday to a low of 152.18 to the dollar, and the exchange rate was 151.73 at 10:40 Tokyo time. Kazuo Ueda, governor of the Bank of Japan, said in an interview last month that the interest rate hike was approaching. A few days later, a report by the news agency emphasized the concern of the central bank about raising interest rates prematurely. Tomaki Nakamura, a member of the Dove Policy Committee, said last week that he was not opposed to raising interest rates, but this month's policy decision must consider data factors.Monetary authority of singapore survey shows that economists predict that Singapore's core inflation rate will be 1.8% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2024 (the previous value is 2.9%).It is reported that the Bank of Japan believes that the cost of waiting for the next rate hike is not great, and the short-term earthquake of the yen market is reported. It is reported that the Bank of Japan believes that the cost of waiting for the next rate hike is not great. Some policy makers are not opposed to raising interest rates in December if it is proposed. It is said that officials believe that the next rate hike is only a matter of time, not whether to raise interest rates. In addition, they believe that there is little risk that the depreciation of the yen will push up inflationary pressure at this stage. The yen then fluctuated greatly. USD/JPY once fell to a low of 150.99, then rose by about 100 points, and now it is back to around 152. Judging from the current situation, traders expect the probability that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by 25 basis points next week to be around 26%.


Hainan has issued "two lists" in the commercial field, which will be implemented on December 25th. Recently, the Hainan Provincial Department of Commerce issued the List of No Administrative Punishment in the Commercial Field of Hainan Province and the List of Lighter Administrative Punishment in the Commercial Field of Hainan Province. There are 30 items in the two lists, and it is clear that some acts in the commercial field of Hainan Province will not be subject to administrative punishment or lighter administrative punishment, which will be implemented on December 25 this year. The List of Non-administrative Penalties in the Commercial Field of Hainan Province clarifies the name of the matter, applicable conditions, basis for non-punishment, relevant legal provisions, remarks and other contents, involving 17 items such as "the franchisor failed to report the franchise contract concluded in the previous year to the competent commercial department on time". Among them, 11 items are "minor violations, corrected in time, without harmful consequences, no administrative punishment"; Six items are "illegal acts, and if they are illegal for the first time and the harmful consequences are minor and corrected in time, they may not be given administrative punishment". The List of Lighter Administrative Penalties in Commercial Fields in Hainan Province clarifies the name of the matter, the applicable conditions, the basis of lighter punishment, relevant legal provisions, the range of lighter punishment, etc., involving 13 items such as "the auction enterprise illegally announces or displays before the auction". The Provincial Department of Commerce requires the competent commercial departments of cities and counties, the comprehensive administrative law enforcement bureau and the relevant offices of the department to conscientiously implement the requirements of the "two lists", apply the provisions of the "two lists" according to law, and apply the "two lists" to adhere to the principle of combining punishment with education.The US CPI data is in line with expectations, and the euro zone bonds are basically flat.German Foreign Minister: Syria's territorial integrity must be ensured.


Citigroup: By 2025, the average price of LNG in Europe TTF and Asia JKM may reach 12.9 USD/million british thermal unit and 13.2 USD/million british thermal unit respectively.Futures closed at night, domestic main futures contracts rose more and fell less, futures closed at night, domestic main futures contracts rose more and fell less, coke rose 0.77%, coking coal rose 0.43%, iron ore rose 0.25%, rebar rose 0.18% and coil fell 0.03%.Zamrazilova, Deputy Governor of the Czech Central Bank: I hope to see the inflation rate drop in January, and then I can start to consider further relaxing interest rates.

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